In the span of two weeks, both sides of the analyst-to-associate pipeline moved. On October 5, Citi said it is cutting its investment banking analyst program from three years to two. On October 15, Business Insider reported that Apollo is delaying recruiting for its 2028 associate class for the second year in a row.
On the surface, both moves look analyst-friendly: more time to decide, a faster path to associate. Look a little closer, though, and there may be another way to read them. One theory: Apollo may want to see who the top performers turn out to be before it makes offers. Citi and JPMorgan now have a natural checkpoint at the two-year mark, and it’s possible not everyone will be promoted. If so, analysts could be asked to prove themselves longer, on both sides of the pipeline.
Apollo: On-Cycle on Hold, Again
Apollo says it wants young bankers to have more time before they commit to the buy side. When the firm first stepped away from on-cycle in June 2025, it looked like a one-time reaction to JPMorgan’s crackdown on future-dated offers. Doing it again makes it a policy.
Confirmed: Apollo is delaying recruiting for its 2028 associate class, the second straight year it has done so.
Not yet public: Apollo’s new timeline. The firm hasn’t said whether it will recruit in January again or later in 2027.
Unclear: Whether others follow. Last year, General Atlantic and TPG paused alongside Apollo, but no other mega-fund has publicly confirmed a delay for the 2028 class. Candidate forums expect a winter process, but there’s nothing official yet.
Why Apollo Can Afford to Wait
Last year’s experiment worked well enough. The 2027 class was recruited in a compressed process in early January 2026. Blackstone, Apollo, Carlyle, TPG, Silver Lake, General Atlantic, Hellman & Friedman and Warburg Pincus ran in-person interviews, and some offers came the same day (Private Equity Wire). It was still a sprint, but firms were judging analysts with six months of real deal work instead of a summer internship. Apollo CEO Marc Rowan has argued that rushed decisions create avoidable turnover.
The market isn’t rushing anyone. The Fed raised rates in September to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike since 2023 (U.S. Bank). PitchBook counted 33,575 unsold PE portfolio companies at mid-year (Fortune), and US exit value fell 14.1% year over year in Q3 (Fortune). When deals and exits slow, there’s little pressure to lock in headcount two years out.
The banks are pushing back. Waiting keeps Apollo on good terms with the banks that supply its talent, and those banks are getting more aggressive about retention.
Apollo may get to pick from a proven pool. This could be part of the appeal. By waiting, Apollo would be able to see who rises to the top of each analyst class, who gets staffed on the best deals and who earns strong reviews, before it extends a single offer. In a slow market with no pressure to fill seats, the firm likely loses little by waiting and may gain a clearer view of who’s worth hiring.
Citi: A Faster Path to Associate
As I wrote in Citi’s Two-Year Analyst Program: What It May Mean for Junior Bankers, Citi’s current third-years will be promoted to associate on January 1, 2027, subject to performance. The path from analyst to VP shrinks from 6.5 years to 5.5. Corporate banking stays at three years.
Citi’s stated reason is retention: help juniors advance faster and give them a reason to stay rather than leave early for private equity. Co-head of North America investment banking David Friedland called early PE recruiting “very unfortunate and to some extent disappointing” (Fortune).
Citi isn’t alone in tightening the screws:
| Bank | Retention move |
|---|---|
| Citi | Analyst program cut from three years to two |
| JPMorgan | Promotion timeline moved to 2.5 years in 2025; analysts who accept future-dated offers in their first 18 months risk being fired |
| Goldman Sachs | Quarterly written confirmations that juniors haven’t accepted outside offers |
A Possible Squeeze on Analysts
Citi frames its move as retention, and for top performers that seems right. But “subject to performance” leaves room for interpretation. A two-year program creates a clear decision point, which could let banks promote the analysts they most want to keep and move others along sooner than a three-year program would.
The backdrop could make a selective promotion round more likely. Citi is in the middle of a plan to cut about 20,000 roles, and nearly nine in ten employees now use its AI tools. AI may start to absorb the repetitive model, deck and formatting work that used to fill an analyst’s third year. With PE hiring slow, banks may also feel less pressure to promote everyone just to keep them from leaving.
There’s a solid counterargument in history. When Goldman moved to a two-year track in 2015, nearly everyone in its first accelerated cohort was promoted, and only about 5% were let go. That was a different market, without today’s AI pressure, but it’s a reminder that faster tracks haven’t historically meant big cuts. Citi’s January 1 promotion rate will be the first real sign of which reading is closer.
If this theory holds, analysts could face a tougher filter at both ends: banks deciding who gets promoted at year two, and PE firms like Apollo waiting to see who the standouts are. The middle of the class would likely feel it most.
Backchanneling may matter more. A later calendar could give PE firms not just more time but more information. When recruiting happened in an analyst’s first weeks, there was little to check beyond a résumé and a summer internship. Six to twelve months in, there’s a real track record, and firms may quietly ask about it. That could mean more informal calls to former colleagues at the bank, to associates and VPs the candidate has staffed with, and to headhunters who hear how each class is ranked.
That cuts both ways. A strong analyst with a reputation for clean work and good judgment may have people vouching for them before the first interview. An analyst who is middle of the pack, or who burned a bridge on a tough deal, may find doors closing without ever learning why. In a market where firms are being more selective, what your staffers say about you could matter as much as your modeling test.
What It Means for the Class of 2028
The 2028 associate pool will look different:
- Some top analysts will stay. The strongest Citi analysts may take a near-term associate title instead of leaving.
- A new off-cycle pool. Analysts who miss promotion in January may hit the market with solid deal experience, which makes a later recruiting calendar like Apollo’s look smarter.
- Title compression. A 2028 associate candidate may have two years of experience, not three. Hiring managers should judge the work, not the title.
The risk is competition. On-cycle has always been driven by it. If a few large firms decide to recruit early, others tend to follow within days, and Apollo could end up an outlier rather than a trendsetter.
Reading the Tea Leaves
None of this is official, and these are theories rather than predictions. But here’s how I’m reading the signals.
1. A later calendar may be becoming the norm. One delay was a reaction. Two in a row, with banks enforcing their rules and last January’s process going smoothly enough, could point to a new baseline. My guess is that serious 2028 recruiting may not start before January 2027, and it could slip later if deal activity stays soft.
2. The pressure may shift to the early movers. In past cycles, the firm that waited lost the best candidates. Now, a firm that recruits early risks friction with JPMorgan, Goldman and Citi, plus candidates who can’t sign without risking their jobs. Moving early is costlier than it used to be.
3. Two-year programs may spread. Goldman moved in 2015, JPMorgan last year and Citi now. Banks still on three-year tracks will have a harder time selling them to recruits who can compare offers side by side. A faster track could also come with a sharper cut, with promotion rates possibly below 100%, with the gap between top and middle performers showing up at year two instead of year three.
4. Classes could be smaller on both ends. PE fundraising is weak and exits are backed up, so associate classes have little reason to grow. Banks haven’t disclosed analyst class sizes, but with two classes in seat instead of three, watch whether they hire more per class or simply run leaner.
5. Off-cycle may matter more. Analysts who aren’t promoted in January, and those who stay for a year as associates, could create a steady flow of experienced candidates outside any single on-cycle window. Middle-market funds, credit platforms and growth equity firms are well placed to take advantage.
6. Credit may keep gaining. With rates going up, private credit is where the activity is. That favors analysts with leveraged finance, restructuring and credit experience, and it’s part of why a credit-heavy firm like Apollo can be patient on PE hiring.
7. AI may change the work before it changes the headcount. The first place AI shows up is likely the repetitive model, deck and formatting work that used to fill the third analyst year. That makes a two-year program easier to justify. It doesn’t yet mean fewer analysts, but it does mean judgment and client skills will matter sooner.
The wildcard: one mega-fund breaking ranks. If a major firm recruits early this winter, the old scramble could return quickly. That’s the biggest risk to all of these theories.
Signals to watch:
- Citi’s January 1 promotion rate
- Analyst class sizes for 2027 and 2028
- Whether other banks with three-year programs follow Citi and JPMorgan
- Whether other PE firms follow Apollo, or break ranks and recruit early
- The Fed’s next moves, and whether exits and fundraising recover in 2027
What Candidates Should Do Now
- Don’t stop networking. A delay isn’t a cancellation. Keep building relationships with Apollo and other firms so you’re known when the process opens.
- Prioritize live deal experience. A later process means firms will judge your real work. Get staffed on deals that close, and know them cold. Assume anyone you work with could get a backchannel call, and treat every staffing as a reference.
- Plan around the two-year mark. If you’re at Citi or JPMorgan, a near-term associate promotion is a real option, but it isn’t guaranteed. Know where you stand by your first-year review, and have a plan B if you’re not in the top tier.
- Prepare as if it could start any day. Keep your modeling, LBO tests and deal discussions sharp. Last January’s process moved from first call to offer within 48 hours.
- Widen the lens. Credit, restructuring, growth equity and middle-market funds hire on their own timelines, and in a high-rate market, credit experience is valuable.
- Know your bank’s rules. With JPMorgan, Goldman and Citi all tightening policies on outside offers, read your employer’s terms before you sign anything.
The bigger picture is encouraging. Between Apollo waiting and Citi promoting faster, the industry is moving, slowly, toward a calendar that lets analysts learn the job before choosing their next one.
Sources
- Business Insider via BizToc: Apollo is delaying its junior talent recruiting cycle again (Oct 15, 2026)
- Prospect Rock Partners: Apollo Abandons Controversial Early Private Equity Recruiting for Analysts (Jun 11, 2025)
- Private Equity Wire: PE firms restart delayed graduate hiring (Jan 7, 2026)
- Fortune: Citi shortens its analyst program to two years (Oct 7, 2026)
- Fortune: U.S. PE deal value down in Q3, PitchBook says (Oct 12, 2026)
- U.S. Bank: Fed raises rates to 3.75%–4.00% (Sep 2026)
- Prospect Rock Partners: Citi’s Two-Year Analyst Program: What It May Mean for Junior Bankers (Oct 5, 2026)