The moment we’ve all been waiting for is finally here. After a strong year in M&A and trading, 2024 bonuses are expected to show significant improvement over the past two years’ disappointing numbers. Here’s what you need to know about the upcoming bonus announcements at the bulge brackets.
Market Context
Let’s start with the good news: global M&A activity surged 11% in 2024, crossing the $3 billion mark. The league table standings reinforce the usual suspects’ dominance, with Goldman maintaining its crown at 30% market share, followed by Morgan Stanley at 25% and JPM at 19%. Trading desks also knocked it out of the park, capitalizing on rate volatility and equity market swings.
According to Johnson Associates, this recovery in deal flow and trading performance could translate to bonus increases of up to 35% compared to last year. This is a welcome change after the post-2021 slump that had many of us questioning our career choices.
Announcement Timeline
Here’s when each bank is expected to drop their numbers:
Morgan Stanley (January 8)
Leading the pack this year, Morgan Stanley is first out of the gate. After their stellar performance on the Reddit IPO and maintaining their #2 position in M&A, expectations are high. Communication begins this week.
Goldman Sachs (January 15)
The gold standard announces on earnings day, with the process extending over several days. With their commanding 30% market share in M&A, anticipation is building for what could be a strong showing.
JPMorgan (January 21)
Jamie’s shop will start communicating numbers on January 21, with US-based payments following the week after. Their solid 19% market share in M&A, combined with strong trading performance, suggests positive outcomes.
Bank of America (January 27)
BofA rounds out the major announcements near month-end on January 27.
Citi
Citi remains somewhat of a wild card, with announcements expected in the latter half of January. The ongoing restructuring under CEO Jane Fraser adds an element of uncertainty to their bonus pool.
Strategic Considerations
For those receiving their numbers in the coming weeks, remember that timing can be everything. While the market is showing strong signs of recovery, and 2025’s pipeline looks promising, it’s worth considering your position carefully before making any rushed decisions.
If you’re among those who feel your number doesn’t reflect your contribution, remember that the hiring market is expected to be particularly active in 2025. However, with improved bonuses expected across the street, it might be worth seeing how Q1 deal flow develops before making any moves.
Looking Ahead
With M&A activity trending upward and trading revenues remaining robust, 2025 is shaping up to be an interesting year. The key question will be whether this bonus season marks the beginning of a sustained recovery in compensation levels or if we’re seeing a temporary uplift driven by pent-up deal demand.
Either way, the next few weeks will be crucial in setting the tone for the year ahead. Keep your phones close, your networks closer, and may the numbers be in your favor.
