Bonus Season Preview: Record Profits, Rising Pay and the Strongest Hiring Since 2000

New York’s securities industry earned $45.9 billion in the first half of 2026, up 51.3% from a year earlier, and is on pace to top $90 billion for the year. State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli expects Wall Street bonuses to rise from last year’s record. Here is what the numbers mean for bankers weighing a move and for firms planning to hire.

Wall Street is on track for its most profitable year on record. According to a report released October 6 by New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, the securities industry earned $45.9 billion in the first half of 2026, up 51.3% from $30.4 billion in the same period last year.

If that pace holds, full-year profits could exceed $90 billion. That would far surpass 2025’s record of $65.1 billion and, as Reuters noted, top even the inflation-adjusted peak set in 2009.

“Wall Street is having an exceptionally strong year, fueled by a boom in artificial intelligence spending, increased merger and acquisition activity, and elevated trading,” DiNapoli said.

For anyone thinking about year-end pay, Wall Street bonuses or a move in 2027, the report offers some of the clearest signals so far.

The Numbers at a Glance

What Is Driving the Record

The gains are broad. DiNapoli pointed to AI-related spending, a pickup in M&A and elevated trading. Reuters added a resurgent IPO market and resilient loan growth to the list.

That mix matters for recruiting. When advisory, capital markets and trading are all contributing at once, demand for talent tends to spread across coverage groups and product teams rather than concentrating in one corner of the bank.

Wall Street Bonuses: Another Record Looks Likely

Wall Street bonuses were already at a record in 2025: the bonus pool reached $49.2 billion, with an average bonus of $246,900. DiNapoli now expects the 2026 pool to rise from that level, barring a market shock in the second half.

The clearest early indicator is compensation spending, which rose 18.8% in the first half. Firms set aside bonus accruals throughout the year, so higher comp spending now usually points to larger payouts in the first quarter of next year.

Two caveats are worth keeping in mind:

• Averages hide a wide range. The average bonus covers everyone in the industry. Individual outcomes will vary by firm, group and performance, and groups tied to the busiest products this year are likely to fare best.
• The second half still counts. Bonus pools are set late in the year. A sharp market pullback in the fourth quarter could still temper the final number.

Hiring: The Most Jobs Since 2000

New York City’s securities industry employed 207,400 people in 2025, up 7,000 from the year before and the highest level since 2000. Preliminary data show the industry has added about 5,300 more jobs so far this year.

Record profits, rising headcount and higher pay accruals together make a strong backdrop for hiring heading into 2027. Firms that are growing tend to compete harder for experienced talent, and that competition usually shows up in offers, sign-on packages and bonus buyouts.

What It Means for You

For bankers considering a move. Timing matters more than usual this year. Leaving before bonuses are paid can mean walking away from a larger-than-normal payout, so it helps to understand how a new firm would handle a buyout before you start a process. Many of the strongest lateral moves are planned in the fall and executed after bonuses are paid in the first quarter. If you are weighing a move, now is a good time to start the conversation.

For hiring managers and firms. Expect bonus expectations and buyout requests to rise along with the pool. Candidates will know what the industry earned this year, and they will price that into their decisions. Firms that plan to hire in the first half of 2027 may want to set budgets and start conversations early, before the post-bonus rush.

For the broader market. A record year gives banks room to invest in senior hires and new coverage areas. It also raises the bar: strong years tend to make firms more selective about who they bring in, even as they hire more.

The Risks DiNapoli Flagged

The report is not without caution. DiNapoli cited geopolitical tensions, high inflation, rising interest rates, concentration in the AI sector and a deregulatory environment as risks to the outlook. Any of these could cool dealmaking or trading in the months ahead, and a strong first half does not guarantee a strong second.

The industry’s health also matters well beyond Wall Street. Securities firms generated an estimated $26.3 billion in state tax revenue in the most recent fiscal year, about 20.8% of all state collections, and $7.8 billion for New York City, about 9.2% of city taxes.

What to Watch

1. Third-quarter bank earnings on October 13 and 14. Investment banking fees, trading revenue and the compensation line will show whether the pace is holding. Our guide to reading a bank earnings report like a recruiter covers which lines to watch.
2. Fourth-quarter market conditions. Volatility, rates and the deal calendar will shape the final bonus pool.
3. The Comptroller’s bonus estimate. The Comptroller’s office typically publishes its estimate of the year’s bonus pool in March.
4. Headcount commentary. Watch for signs of where banks are adding people, and where AI is changing how teams are staffed.

Barring a shock, 2026 is shaping up as a record year for profits and pay. For bankers and the firms that hire them, the coming months are a good time to plan.

Related reading

• How to Read a Bank Earnings Report Like a Recruiter: The Lines That Tell You Who’s Hiring
• Exiting Is a Decision, Not a Default: Rethinking the Banker’s Exit in the Year of the Bank
• Rolling Layoffs and Talent Upgrades: Are RIFs a Thing of the Past?

Sources

• Office of the New York State Comptroller via Bronx.com, “DiNapoli: Wall Street First Half 2026 Profits Soar to Nearly $46 Billion” (10/6/2026)
• Reuters via Investing.com, “Wall Street profits soar to $45.9 billion in first half of 2026, report shows” (10/6/2026)